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Predictive Analytics Model for Estimating Outpatient Clinic Overbooking Risk Using Appointment History, Provider Schedule Density, Visit Complexity, No-Show Probability, Seasonal Trends, and Patient Communication Records
Outpatient clinics routinely overbook to compensate for patient no-shows, but poorly calibrated overbooking can create provider overtime, patient wait time, and staff burnout. The operational challenge is to preserve access without overwhelming clinical capacity. Current overbooking rules often rely on static session-level averages. These rules ignore the dynamic risk profile of the specific patient being added to the schedule. This article develops a predictive analytics model that estimates overbooking risk for each proposed additional appointment. The model uses patient-specific features together with provider, schedule, seasonal, and communication context. The proposed model would use gradient-boosted classification or regression trained on historical appointment data. Its output would be a risk score reflecting the likelihood of excessive wait time, overtime, or queue formation for the session. Conceptually, the model would flag situations in which adding a particular patient to a dense session creates high operational risk. It would also identify lower-risk overbooking opportunities when the schedule has sufficient flexibility. The model could enable precision overbooking in outpatient clinics. It would support access and efficiency while reducing the negative consequences of both no-shows and excessive overbooking.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2023 | Article: 81
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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