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A Dynamic Graph Neural Network Framework for Chronic Postsurgical Pain Trajectory Prediction Using Temporal Opioid and Psychological Data
Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) affects 10–50% of surgical patients and is a major contributor to long-term opioid use and reduced quality of life. Current predictive models treat patients independently and fail to capture how risk evolves over time or how postoperative opioid trajectories influence divergence in outcomes. We propose a dynamic graph neural network (GNN) framework in which patients are modeled as nodes and similarity-based edges evolve over time based on opioid prescription patterns, pain scores, and preoperative psychological factors. The model includes (1) a patient graph with static preoperative features, (2) a temporal edge update mechanism, (3) a GNN message-passing layer that aggregates information from dynamically connected patients, and (4) a prediction head estimating CPSP risk at 3, 6, and 12 months. By modeling changing patient relationships after surgery, the framework captures how similar patients may diverge or converge depending on postoperative management, enabling more accurate and personalized CPSP risk prediction using longitudinal electronic health record data.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Healthcare Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2025 | Article: 107

Machine Learning for Hospital Length-of-Stay Prediction: A Systematic Review of Electronic Health Record Features, Model Architectures, Validation Methods, and Operational Implementation Outcomes
Hospital length-of-stay is a central operational metric for inpatient capacity planning, discharge coordination, and resource allocation. Accurate prediction remains difficult because patient trajectories are heterogeneous, nonlinear, and shaped by evolving clinical events during admission. Traditional statistical models often have limited flexibility for high-dimensional and sequential electronic health record data. Across the literature, there is no settled consensus regarding optimal model architecture, feature representation, validation design, or clinical implementation strategy. This systematic review synthesizes machine learning approaches for hospital length-of-stay prediction published from 2017 to 2022. It focuses on EHR feature types, model architectures, validation methods, interpretability strategies, and reported operational outcomes. A structured review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted using targeted search strings related to machine learning, deep learning, electronic health records, discharge prediction, and hospital length-of-stay. The review included studies across emergency, inpatient, surgical, pediatric, cardiovascular, and intensive care settings. The literature suggests that gradient boosting, random forest, ensemble learning, and recurrent neural networks are common approaches for LOS prediction. However, external validation remains uncommon, prediction horizons vary widely, and operational implementation outcomes are reported less consistently than model development results. Future research should prioritize external validation, prospective implementation studies, standardized outcome definitions, and transparent reporting of workflow barriers. Shared benchmarking datasets and multi-center validation consortia would strengthen comparability across LOS prediction studies.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Review | Open access | 25 February 2023 | Article: 75

Predictive Model for Identifying Delayed Diagnostic Follow-Up After Abnormal Screening Results Using Patient Portal Messages, Scheduling Attempts, Primary Care Workload, Result Severity, and Reminder History
Failure to follow up after abnormal screening results is a persistent ambulatory safety problem. Because the diagnostic process often spans patient notification, scheduling, primary care review, and reminder outreach, delays may emerge gradually before they become visible in registry reports. Existing care gap reports commonly classify results as closed or open after a defined time window. This retrospective framing limits the ability to detect patients who are currently moving toward delayed diagnostic resolution. The objective of this article is to describe a predictive model that estimates the probability of delayed diagnostic follow-up after an abnormal screening result. The proposed model integrates patient engagement signals, scheduling activity, clinician workload, result severity, and reminder history. The model would use a gradient-boosted classification framework trained on historical abnormal results and longitudinal care-process features. Inputs would be extracted from patient portals, scheduling systems, primary care workload records, laboratory and radiology result metadata, and reminder logs. Conceptually, the model would generate a daily updated risk score for each unreconciled abnormal result. It would also identify the dominant drivers of risk, such as unread portal messages, repeated appointment cancellations, limited primary care availability, high-severity findings, or escalating reminder activity. A predictive approach could shift delayed follow-up management from retrospective audit to proactive prioritization. By identifying patients at greatest risk before the diagnostic window closes, care teams could better allocate outreach and navigation resources.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2024 | Article: 96

Predictive Model for Forecasting Diagnostic Service Demand Using Ambulatory Referral Volume, Seasonal Disease Trends, Physician Ordering Patterns, Equipment Availability, and Historical Appointment Backlogs
Diagnostic services are central to clinical decision-making because imaging, laboratory testing, and cardiology diagnostics often determine the next step in diagnosis, treatment, or referral. Bottlenecks in these services can delay care pathways and increase wait times when demand rises faster than available capacity. Current forecasting approaches in diagnostic departments are often reactive and based on historical averages, recent appointment counts, or manual manager judgment. Such approaches may miss upstream signals such as referral surges, seasonal disease activity, and physician ordering behavior. This article proposes a predictive model for forecasting diagnostic service demand by integrating ambulatory referral volume, seasonal disease trends, physician ordering patterns, equipment availability, and historical appointment backlogs. The model is intended to support short- and medium-term capacity planning across diagnostic services. The proposed approach uses a supervised time-series forecasting framework, such as gradient boosting with temporal features or a recurrent neural architecture, trained on historical diagnostic order and scheduling data. Inputs would be engineered from referral streams, diagnostic ordering records, seasonal indicators, equipment schedules, and backlog measures. Conceptually, the model would generate daily or weekly demand forecasts for each diagnostic modality and service line. Forecasts would include uncertainty bounds and operational alerts when projected demand is expected to exceed available appointment capacity. The proposed predictive model could enable proactive capacity management in diagnostic departments. By anticipating demand before backlogs become severe, the model could support improved scheduling, better equipment utilization, and reduced patient waiting times.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2025 | Article: 112
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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