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Predictive Model for Forecasting Diagnostic Service Demand Using Ambulatory Referral Volume, Seasonal Disease Trends, Physician Ordering Patterns, Equipment Availability, and Historical Appointment Backlogs
Diagnostic services are central to clinical decision-making because imaging, laboratory testing, and cardiology diagnostics often determine the next step in diagnosis, treatment, or referral. Bottlenecks in these services can delay care pathways and increase wait times when demand rises faster than available capacity. Current forecasting approaches in diagnostic departments are often reactive and based on historical averages, recent appointment counts, or manual manager judgment. Such approaches may miss upstream signals such as referral surges, seasonal disease activity, and physician ordering behavior. This article proposes a predictive model for forecasting diagnostic service demand by integrating ambulatory referral volume, seasonal disease trends, physician ordering patterns, equipment availability, and historical appointment backlogs. The model is intended to support short- and medium-term capacity planning across diagnostic services. The proposed approach uses a supervised time-series forecasting framework, such as gradient boosting with temporal features or a recurrent neural architecture, trained on historical diagnostic order and scheduling data. Inputs would be engineered from referral streams, diagnostic ordering records, seasonal indicators, equipment schedules, and backlog measures. Conceptually, the model would generate daily or weekly demand forecasts for each diagnostic modality and service line. Forecasts would include uncertainty bounds and operational alerts when projected demand is expected to exceed available appointment capacity. The proposed predictive model could enable proactive capacity management in diagnostic departments. By anticipating demand before backlogs become severe, the model could support improved scheduling, better equipment utilization, and reduced patient waiting times.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2025 | Article: 112
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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