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Why Most Sepsis Prediction Models Fail at the Bedside: A Position Paper on the Gap Between AUROC and Clinical Utility
Over the past five years, sepsis prediction models have reported strong retrospective performance, often exceeding AUROC 0.85–0.90 by leveraging vital signs, laboratory data, and machine learning to predict sepsis earlier than clinical recognition. However, despite these results, bedside adoption remains minimal, and external or prospective validations frequently show substantial performance decline, with clinicians still relying on traditional criteria such as qSOFA and SIRS. This position paper argues that AUROC is an insufficient and potentially misleading metric for clinical deployment, as it reflects retrospective rank discrimination rather than real-world utility, calibration, or actionable impact. High AUROC scores often conceal poor threshold selection, excessive alert burden, and clinically unacceptable alarm fatigue, while retrospective evaluations create an overly optimistic view that fails in real-time settings. We propose shifting evaluation toward clinically meaningful metrics such as net benefit, alert burden per patient-day, and number needed to alert at clinician-defined thresholds, alongside earlier incorporation of workflow requirements. Ultimately, the continued dominance of AUROC-centric evaluation represents a systemic mismatch between model development and clinical reality, limiting sepsis prediction tools from achieving meaningful impact at the bedside.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Healthcare Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 January 2022 | Article: 54
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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