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Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network for Forecasting Daily Hospital Bed Demand at Regional Level Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance and Environmental Data
Seasonal influenza and respiratory viruses cause recurring surges in hospital bed demand, often resulting in overcrowding under reactive capacity management. ILI surveillance data and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity provide early signals of transmission, making them valuable for forecasting healthcare demand. Traditional forecasting methods rely on simple time series models or historical averages and fail to capture spatial disease spread or environmental influences, leading to inaccurate predictions and poor resource allocation. We propose a spatiotemporal graph neural network (ST-GNN) that integrates ILI surveillance and environmental data for regional daily hospital bed demand forecasting. The model represents regions as graph nodes connected by population flow, enabling joint spatial-temporal modeling of disease dynamics. The framework uses regional graph construction, ILI data from healthcare visits, and environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and air quality. These inputs are processed by the ST-GNN to predict daily bed demand. The approach captures spatial disease propagation and improves early detection of demand surges, supporting proactive healthcare planning. The ST-GNN provides a scalable, data-driven framework for improving hospital bed demand forecasting and enhancing preparedness during seasonal epidemics.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Healthcare Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 January 2024 | Article: 79
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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