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Transparent Machine Learning Model for Predicting Delayed Follow-Up After Emergency Department Visits Using Discharge Instructions, Appointment Availability, Portal Engagement, Social Risk Data, and Visit Severity
Many patients discharged from emergency departments require timely outpatient follow-up to complete diagnostic, therapeutic, or monitoring plans. When follow-up is delayed, unresolved symptoms, missed diagnoses, medication problems, and preventable return visits may occur. Current discharge workflows often rely on generic instructions and assume that patients can understand, schedule, and attend recommended care. Existing prediction approaches do not consistently combine unstructured discharge instructions, appointment access, portal engagement, social risk, and visit severity in a transparent way.This article proposes a transparent machine learning framework for predicting delayed follow-up after emergency department visits. The objective is to support patient-specific discharge planning by identifying both the likelihood of delay and the most actionable contributing barriers. The proposed model would combine structured emergency department and scheduling data with natural language processing features extracted from discharge instructions. A gradient-boosted tree model with SHAP-based explanations would provide patient-level and population-level interpretability. Conceptually, the model would identify patients at elevated risk of delayed follow-up and attribute that risk to factors such as unclear instructions, limited appointment availability, absent portal engagement, transportation barriers, or higher visit complexity. These explanations would be intended to guide targeted interventions rather than replace clinical judgment. A transparent model for delayed follow-up prediction could enable precision transitional care after emergency department discharge. By aligning predictions with actionable explanations, care teams could direct limited resources toward the specific barrier most likely to prevent timely follow-up.
Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2026 | Article: 133
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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