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Uncertainty Quantification for Postoperative Delirium Prediction: A Position Paper on Why Bayesian Deep Learning Matters for Elderly Surgical Patients
Postoperative delirium affects 10–60% of elderly surgical patients and is linked to longer hospital stays, cognitive decline, and increased mortality. Although machine learning models have been developed to predict this condition using perioperative data, most rely on point predictions that fail to express uncertainty, limiting their clinical reliability in high-stakes surgical decision-making. These models often report a single risk estimate without indicating whether predictions are supported by strong or sparse evidence, which can lead to overconfidence and potential patient harm in vulnerable populations with heterogeneous frailty and comorbidity profiles. We argue that Bayesian deep learning is essential for postoperative delirium prediction because it provides distributional outputs and uncertainty estimates that allow clinicians to assess prediction reliability. Incorporating uncertainty quantification can transform these models from opaque tools into clinically trustworthy decision aids. We recommend that uncertainty reporting be required in all predictive models for postoperative delirium and that regulatory and publication standards enforce the use of Bayesian approaches. Overall, replacing point estimates with distributional predictions is necessary to improve safety and clinical utility in perioperative care of elderly patients.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Healthcare Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2022 | Article: 62

From LSTM to Transformers: A Perspective on Evolving Deep Learning Architectures for Acute Ischemic Stroke Prediction
Acute ischemic stroke prediction from electronic health record time series data holds significant potential for enabling early intervention and reducing long-term disability. LSTMs have been widely used to model clinical sequences such as vital signs and laboratory trends, showing strong performance in stroke-related prediction tasks from 2018–2022. However, their sequential nature limits scalability and long-range dependency modeling in large EHR datasets. Transformers, despite transforming sequence modeling in other domains since 2017, remain underused in stroke prediction compared to LSTMs. Although early healthcare studies suggest potential benefits of attention-based models, robust validation in acute ischemic stroke contexts is still limited. Transformers offer advantages in parallel processing, long-range dependency modeling, and interpretability, but require more data and computational resources. They are likely to complement rather than replace LSTMs, with hybrid architectures providing a balanced solution for clinical time series analysis. Key themes include long-range dependency capture, parallel computation, interpretability, and data efficiency trade-offs between LSTMs and transformers. Hybrid LSTM–transformer models may offer improved performance and practicality for stroke prediction, with model selection depending on data scale and clinical constraints. Further benchmarking is needed to determine when transformers or hybrid models outperform LSTMs, guiding the development of more effective stroke prediction systems.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Healthcare Systems
Original Research | Open access | 20 July 2022 | Article: 63
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AI-driven Diagnostics Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Big Data in Healthcare Clinical Data Mining Clinical Decision Support Systems Clinical Informatics Computer Vision Connected Health Systems Deep Learning Digital Health Digital Healthcare Innovation Digital Transformation in Healthcare Electronic Health Records Ethical AI in Healthcare Explainable AI Health Data Analytics Health Data Privacy Health Informatics Health Information Management Health Information Systems Health System Optimization Health Technology Assessment Healthcare Data Science Healthcare Informatics Healthcare Information Security Healthcare Management Healthcare Management Information Systems Intelligent Medical Systems Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Interoperability in Healthcare Systems Machine Learning Medical Data Analytics Medical Data Management Medical Imaging Mobile Health (mHealth) Natural Language Processing Precision Medicine Predictive Analytics Remote Patient Monitoring Smart Healthcare Systems Telemedicine Wearable Health Technologies e-Health




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