Clinical Intelligence Research Press Clinical Intelligence Research Press

Demand-Shock Detection for Hospital Supply Chains: A Resilience Analytics Blueprint for Critical Consumables

Original Research | Open access | Published: 10 July 2025
Volume 5, article number 50, (2025) Cite this article
You have full access to this open access article.
Download PDF
, ,
  1. Department of Health Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
  2. Department of Digital Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
119 Accesses

Abstract

Hospital supply chains face unprecedented vulnerabilities from demand shocks, such as pandemics or natural disasters, which disrupt the availability of critical consumables like personal protective equipment and medications. This conceptual manuscript proposes a resilience analytics blueprint leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to detect and mitigate these shocks in healthcare systems. Drawing on clinical AI architectures, healthcare analytics infrastructures, and electronic health record (EHR) intelligence ecosystems, we introduce the demand-shock adaptive resilience network (DSARN), a novel framework for proactive monitoring and orchestration. DSARN integrates decision support pipelines with AI governance mechanisms to enable real-time anomaly detection without empirical data or model training. Key components include layered interoperability frameworks for data exchange across hospital nodes and workflow integration models that prioritize critical consumables. Conceptual formulas illustrate risk propagation through supply networks and governance load on monitoring systems. By synthesizing recent literature on AI deployment in healthcare, this blueprint emphasizes theoretical infrastructures for enhancing supply chain resilience, addressing interoperability challenges, and ensuring ethical governance. The architecture fosters adaptive feedback topologies to anticipate disruptions, offering a pathway for hospitals to build robust analytics ecosystems. Ultimately, DSARN provides a theoretical foundation for transforming reactive supply management into predictive resilience, safeguarding patient care amid volatility.

Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles in related subjects:

Introduction

Hospital supply chains represent a lifeline for clinical operations, yet they are increasingly susceptible to demand shocks—sudden surges or drops in need for critical consumables driven by external crises. These shocks, exemplified by global pandemics or geopolitical disruptions, can cascade into shortages of essentials like ventilators, gloves, or pharmaceuticals, compromising patient outcomes. In the realm of artificial intelligence for healthcare systems, resilience analytics emerges as a pivotal tool to detect and buffer such volatilities. This manuscript delineates a conceptual blueprint for demand-shock detection, grounded in AI-driven architectures that enhance supply chain robustness without relying on empirical datasets or performance metrics.

Critical consumables in clinical settings: vulnerabilities to demand-shocks

Critical consumables, including single-use medical devices and pharmaceuticals, form the backbone of hospital operations, yet their procurement is fraught with demand-shock vulnerabilities. In clinical settings, where just-in-time inventory models prevail, unexpected surges—such as those during infectious outbreaks—can overwhelm supply chains, leading to rationing or delays in care [1, 2]. Literature highlights how AI system architectures can theoretically monitor these items through predictive signals derived from EHR intelligence ecosystems, identifying early indicators of imbalance [3, 4]. For instance, interoperability frameworks enable seamless data flow from procurement logs to clinical workflows, allowing hypothetical detection of shock precursors like anomalous order patterns. This subheading anchors the discussion to the clinical setting, emphasizing how demand shocks disproportionately affect high-turnover consumables, necessitating resilience analytics to maintain operational continuity.

Data modalities for hospital supply chain detection: integrating EHR ecosystems

Data modalities in hospital supply chains encompass structured EHR records, inventory logs, and external market signals, all of which can be harnessed through AI analytics infrastructures for demand-shock detection. EHR intelligence ecosystems provide a rich substrate for theoretical anomaly spotting, where decision support pipelines process multimodal data to flag deviations [5, 6]. Without empirical training, conceptual models posit that governance systems monitor data quality, ensuring interoperability across disparate hospital databases [7, 8]. In this context, resilience analytics blueprints must account for data modality diversity, such as real-time telemetry from supply vendors integrated with clinical usage metrics. By embedding title-specific terminology, this exploration underscores how fragmented data modalities exacerbate shock propagation, advocating for unified frameworks that theoretically enhance detection fidelity in volatile environments.

Deployment environments for resilience analytics: hospital network constraints

Deployment environments in hospitals impose unique constraints on AI systems for supply chain resilience, including legacy infrastructure and regulatory hurdles that amplify demand-shock impacts on critical consumables [9, 10]. Clinical workflow integration models suggest that AI orchestration can bridge these gaps, deploying monitoring tools in distributed networks to anticipate disruptions [11, 12]. Theoretical architectures emphasize scalable deployment, where edge computing nodes in hospital wards interface with central analytics hubs, fostering resilience without centralized bottlenecks. Governance constraints, such as data privacy mandates, further shape these environments, requiring blueprints that incorporate ethical monitoring to prevent overreach [13, 14]. This subheading highlights how deployment variability— from urban tertiary centers to rural facilities—demands adaptive analytics, ensuring that demand-shock detection remains feasible across heterogeneous hospital ecosystems.

Governance constraints in AI-enabled supply chains: ethical detection imperatives

Governance constraints are paramount in AI applications for hospital supply chains, particularly when detecting demand shocks that could infringe on equitable resource allocation for critical consumables [15, 16]. AI governance systems must theoretically balance surveillance with transparency, using monitoring frameworks to audit detection algorithms for bias [17, 18]. In healthcare analytics, this involves interoperability standards that enforce audit trails, aligning with clinical ethics to safeguard vulnerable populations during shocks. Decision support pipelines, governed by these constraints, enable hypothetical scenario planning, where resilience is bolstered through accountable AI deployment [19, 20]. By focusing on governance, this manuscript posits that unchecked detection systems risk exacerbating inequalities, thus necessitating blueprints that embed ethical layers from inception.

The introduction thus frames demand-shock detection as an urgent imperative for hospital supply chains, synthesizing AI’s potential in resilience analytics. Moving forward, the theoretical background will delve deeper into literature, paving the way for the proposed architecture.

Theoretical Background and Literature Synthesis

The conceptual foundations of demand-shock detection in hospital supply chains emerge from parallel developments in clinical artificial intelligence architectures and health analytics infrastructures. Over the past decade, the health systems literature has increasingly recognized that hospital supply networks—particularly those responsible for critical consumables such as pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, and surgical materials—operate within highly volatile environments characterized by sudden surges in demand, fragile supplier networks, and limited inventory visibility. These conditions became particularly evident during large-scale health emergencies, prompting scholarly attention toward the theoretical potential of AI-enabled systems to strengthen resilience in hospital logistics. Since approximately 2017, peer-reviewed research has increasingly focused on conceptual and architectural frameworks that describe how AI could be integrated into health system infrastructures to anticipate or detect disruptions in supply chains, although empirical validation of these frameworks remains limited. The literature, therefore, provides a predominantly theoretical blueprint for resilience analytics, emphasizing system architecture, interoperability, and governance as the core structural components of intelligent hospital supply management.

Within this emerging body of scholarship, clinical AI system architectures constitute the structural backbone for the detection and mitigation of supply chain anomalies. Early work on AI-enabled logistics optimization conceptualized multi-layer architectures in which predictive algorithms support dynamic routing, demand forecasting, and resource allocation across healthcare delivery networks. These architectures were originally developed for broader supply chain efficiency but have been increasingly framed as mechanisms for identifying irregular demand patterns that signal potential supply shocks [1]. Conceptual models frequently describe layered AI systems in which upstream data ingestion modules collect signals from clinical operations, procurement databases, and distribution channels. At the same time, downstream analytic layers process these signals through predictive algorithms designed to anticipate disruptions or shortages [2]. Although largely theoretical, these frameworks highlight the importance of embedding predictive intelligence directly into supply chain infrastructure so that hospital logistics systems can respond to early indicators of demand volatility.

In disaster preparedness and emergency response research, AI architectures are frequently discussed as adaptive systems capable of prioritizing the distribution of critical resources during periods of extreme stress. Studies examining supply networks under disaster conditions propose architectures that dynamically reallocate inventory toward high-priority facilities and patient populations. Such models emphasize algorithmic prioritization mechanisms capable of recognizing abnormal consumption rates for essential medical goods and triggering mitigation strategies such as redistribution, emergency procurement, or inventory buffering [3]. Systematic reviews of AI applications in healthcare supply chain management similarly identify a growing consensus that intelligent orchestration—where machine learning systems coordinate supply decisions across multiple actors—could enable health systems to manage volatility more effectively [4]. However, much of this literature remains exploratory, outlining architectural possibilities rather than documenting operational implementations.

Complementing these architectural perspectives are healthcare analytics infrastructures that support data-driven resilience across hospital supply networks. These infrastructures enable the aggregation, processing, and analysis of large volumes of operational data necessary for detecting abnormal consumption patterns. Several conceptual studies propose blockchain-enabled infrastructures as mechanisms for improving transparency and traceability across pharmaceutical and medical supply chains. Blockchain-based ledgers are theoretically capable of recording transactional data at each stage of the supply network, thereby providing a tamper-resistant record of procurement, distribution, and utilization that could support anomaly detection and shortage forecasting [5]. While practical deployment remains limited, these models demonstrate how distributed data architectures might address longstanding visibility challenges in hospital supply management.

Strategic discussions within global AI policy forums further emphasize the role of analytics infrastructures in supporting health system surge readiness. Reports emerging from international AI summits highlight the need for integrated data platforms capable of synthesizing clinical demand signals with supply logistics information in order to support predictive planning during crises [6]. These infrastructures are envisioned as scalable monitoring systems that continuously analyze supply utilization patterns across hospitals, enabling health authorities to detect emerging shortages before they escalate into systemic failures. Surveys examining AI adoption in healthcare similarly identify analytics platforms as a key enabling factor for supply chain monitoring, noting that institutions with advanced data infrastructures are better positioned to implement predictive oversight of critical inventory [7]. Conceptual discussions of large language models and other advanced AI systems further illustrate how complex analytical pipelines could support forecasting and decision-making in healthcare logistics environments, even though these technologies remain largely theoretical within the context of medical supply management [8].

Central to the effectiveness of these analytics infrastructures are electronic health record (EHR) intelligence ecosystems that serve as primary data sources for operational insights. EHR systems capture real-time clinical information, including patient diagnoses, treatment protocols, and procedural activity, all of which generate demand signals for medical supplies. Scholars increasingly conceptualize EHR platforms as components of adaptive health systems capable of responding dynamically to environmental turbulence. Within this perspective, resilient EHR ecosystems are designed to support integrated data flows between clinical operations and supply chain management systems, enabling the detection of abnormal consumption trends linked to shifts in patient demand [9]. Predictive models that integrate EHR-derived clinical data with administrative policies have also been proposed as tools for guiding operational adjustments during periods of heightened demand, illustrating how clinical data infrastructures could inform supply allocation strategies [10].

Privacy-preserving data exchange mechanisms remain an essential element of these ecosystems. Research on telehealth and digital health interventions highlights the importance of secure data governance frameworks that enable analytics without compromising patient confidentiality. Such frameworks provide the foundation for responsible data sharing between clinical systems and logistics platforms, thereby supporting the monitoring of supply utilization while maintaining compliance with privacy regulations [11]. Similarly, digital identity management systems embedded within EHR infrastructures are proposed as mechanisms for managing secure access to sensitive operational data. These identity frameworks can theoretically ensure that authorized supply chain actors—including hospital administrators, procurement officers, and regulatory agencies—have appropriate visibility into supply data needed for coordinated response efforts [12].

While EHR ecosystems provide the data foundation, decision support pipelines translate these data streams into operational insights that inform supply chain actions. Digital transformation initiatives within the pharmaceutical sector illustrate how AI-driven decision pipelines can enable real-time monitoring of supply conditions. These pipelines typically integrate predictive analytics with automated alerts that notify administrators when demand patterns deviate from expected consumption baselines, thereby facilitating rapid response to potential shortages [13]. Research examining workforce dynamics during pandemics further suggests that workforce fluctuations—such as staff shortages or redeployments—can significantly influence demand for certain consumables, underscoring the need for decision support systems capable of incorporating workforce data into supply forecasting models [14].

Economic structures within healthcare systems also shape the operation of decision pipelines. Studies analyzing pharmacy benefit manager practices demonstrate how financial incentives and reimbursement structures influence medication access and distribution patterns. Understanding these economic pipelines is therefore essential for designing AI-enabled detection systems that account for both clinical and market dynamics when assessing supply risks [15]. Sustainability considerations also play a role in shaping decision support frameworks. Research exploring circular economy models in surgical care suggests that integrating sustainability metrics into supply decision pipelines can reduce waste and improve resource utilization, thereby enhancing resilience against demand shocks that might otherwise deplete limited supplies [16].

Effective implementation of these pipelines requires robust governance structures to ensure ethical, transparent, and reliable operation. The widespread shortages of personal protective equipment observed during global health emergencies have highlighted the critical role of governance in monitoring supply chain decisions and preventing inequitable distribution. Scholars emphasize that AI-driven supply systems must operate within oversight frameworks that define accountability, establish monitoring protocols, and ensure that algorithmic decisions align with public health priorities [17]. Similar concerns arise in research examining medication access during pandemics, where governance mechanisms are necessary to ensure that predictive systems do not exacerbate disparities in access to essential medicines [18].

Broader analyses of artificial intelligence in medicine reinforce the importance of governance in AI deployment. These studies stress that algorithmic systems must be continuously monitored to prevent unintended consequences, including biased resource allocation or opaque decision-making processes that undermine trust in health system operations [19]. Distributed data networks have been proposed as governance-supporting infrastructures capable of facilitating collaborative oversight across institutions. By enabling the secure exchange of real-world evidence and operational data, such networks could support coordinated monitoring of supply chain performance across regional or national health systems [20].

Interoperability and data exchange frameworks form the connective infrastructure that links governance structures with practical deployment across healthcare ecosystems. Drug supply chain security initiatives emphasize the need for interoperable tracking systems capable of following pharmaceutical products from manufacturing through distribution to clinical use. These frameworks aim to enhance visibility across complex supply networks, thereby enabling earlier detection of disruptions or irregularities that could lead to shortages [21]. Studies examining the importation of antibiotics and other critical medicines further reveal the vulnerabilities inherent in globally distributed supply chains, highlighting the need for international data exchange mechanisms capable of identifying disruptions across borders [22].

Concerns regarding substandard or falsified medicines reinforce the importance of robust data infrastructures capable of detecting anomalies in product authenticity and distribution patterns. Such systems rely on interoperable data frameworks that allow regulators, manufacturers, and healthcare institutions to share information about product provenance and supply chain integrity [23]. Research conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic had already identified significant gaps in data interoperability within pharmaceutical supply systems, with fragmented information flows contributing to delayed recognition of emerging shortages [24]. Subsequent analyses emphasize that the complexity of modern drug supply networks requires advanced data exchange models capable of integrating information across manufacturers, distributors, healthcare providers, and regulatory agencies [25].

Finally, clinical workflow integration models connect these technical infrastructures with the everyday operations of hospitals and healthcare organizations. Effective supply chain resilience requires that analytic insights generated by AI systems are embedded directly into clinical and administrative workflows. Programs integrating food-as-medicine initiatives within healthcare delivery illustrate how supply management processes can be aligned with clinical operations to ensure that necessary resources are available when needed [26]. Critical analyses of systemic inefficiencies within healthcare systems similarly argue that workflow reforms are necessary to enable more resilient integration between clinical demand and supply logistics [27].

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a vivid illustration of how workflow bottlenecks can amplify supply disruptions. Studies examining persistent disruptions during the pandemic identify challenges in coordinating procurement, distribution, and clinical utilization of essential medical goods, underscoring the importance of integrating supply chain intelligence into operational workflows [28]. Efforts to improve medical device tracking further demonstrate the value of embedding traceability systems within hospital workflows so that clinicians and administrators can monitor device availability and usage patterns in real time [29]. Pediatric drug shortages, which have emerged as a recurring challenge in recent years, also highlight the need for workflow adaptations capable of responding to rapidly shifting demand conditions across different patient populations [30]. At the international level, collaborative procurement initiatives in regions such as Latin America reveal additional workflow challenges associated with coordinating supply chain activities across multiple health systems and regulatory environments [31].

Taken together, these strands of literature converge on a conceptual framework in which resilient hospital supply chains are supported by interconnected layers of technological and organizational infrastructure. Clinical AI architectures provide the structural foundation for anomaly detection, analytics infrastructures enable large-scale data processing, EHR ecosystems supply operational intelligence, decision support pipelines translate analytics into action, governance systems ensure ethical oversight, interoperability frameworks facilitate information exchange, and workflow integration models embed these capabilities within everyday hospital operations. Although empirical evidence for fully integrated implementations remains limited, the literature collectively outlines a theoretical blueprint for resilience analytics capable of detecting and mitigating demand shocks in healthcare supply systems.

This synthesis reveals a convergence toward resilient, AI-enabled supply chains, where theoretical architectures prioritize detection over reaction. Gaps persist in conceptualizing feedback topologies for ongoing adaptation, which the proposed framework addresses.

Resilience analytics infrastructure for demand-shock orchestration in hospital supply chains

The core of this blueprint is the demand-shock adaptive resilience network (DSARN), a uniquely structured framework comprising four interconnected layers: sensing, analysis, orchestration, and feedback. Unlike traditional linear models, DSARN employs a dynamic feedback topology with bidirectional loops between layers, enabling theoretical propagation of alerts and adjustments across hospital nodes. The Sensing layer interfaces with EHR ecosystems to capture proxy signals for demand shocks, such as usage spikes in critical consumables. The Analysis layer applies conceptual AI pipelines to interpret these signals, theoretically quantifying anomalies via governance-monitored thresholds. Orchestration integrates decision support for resource reallocation, while feedback refines the network through iterative learning cycles, ensuring resilience evolution. Figure 1 illustrates the DSARN, a governance-embedded resilience analytics architecture in which demand-shock signals propagate across sensing, analysis, orchestration, and adaptive feedback layers to stabilize hospital supply chains for critical consumables.

Figure 1. Demand-shock adaptive resilience network (DSARN): governance-embedded detection and orchestration of supply chain volatility

Figure 1. Demand-shock adaptive resilience network (DSARN): governance-embedded detection and orchestration of supply chain volatility

To formalize key dynamics, consider the following interpretive formulas:

  1. Risk propagation (RP):  where  denotes demand-shock intensity at node i,  is the vulnerability of consumable j, and N is the number of network nodes. This captures theoretical cascade effects in supply chains.

  2. Governance load (GL): , with  monitoring tasks,  interoperability demands, and  resource capacity. It interprets the burden on AI systems during shocks.

  3. Drift sensitivity , where ΔS is signal deviation, and T is the time horizon, illustrating hypothetical sensitivity to evolving demand patterns.

DSARN thus provides an infrastructural blueprint for orchestrating resilience, theoretically safeguarding critical consumables through AI-enhanced detection. Table 1 delineates the structural layers of the demand-shock adaptive resilience network and clarifies how sensing, analysis, orchestration, and feedback mechanisms collectively enable demand-shock detection and resilience adaptation in hospital supply chains.

Table 1. Structural architecture of the DSARN

DSARN layer

Core analytical function

Primary data inputs

Operational outputs

Governance role

Hospital signal acquisition

Capture real-time indicators of consumable demand across clinical operations

EHR procedure logs, medication orders, inventory utilization records, and vendor telemetry

Structured demand signal streams for analytics pipelines

Ensures data provenance, interoperability compliance, and privacy safeguards

Shock interpretation engine

Detect anomalous consumption patterns and estimate demand-shock intensity

Aggregated hospital usage signals and external supply indicators

Shock alerts and deviation metrics indicating emerging shortages

Validates detection thresholds and monitors bias in anomaly classification

Supply orchestration nexus

Coordinate supply responses across hospital networks

Shock alerts, consumable vulnerability indices, and logistics availability data

Redistribution commands, emergency procurement triggers, prioritization directives

Supervises allocation fairness and prevents inequitable resource distribution

Adaptive resilience feedback

Continuously recalibrate detection thresholds and supply strategies

Orchestration outcomes, monitoring metrics, and governance audit results

Updated anomaly thresholds, revised vulnerability weights, and network learning updates

Maintains auditability, algorithmic transparency, and resilience evaluation

Systemic consequences of DSARN deployment in volatile healthcare ecosystems

The deployment of the DSARN engenders profound systemic consequences for hospital supply chains, particularly in managing critical consumables amid volatility. Theoretically, DSARN’s layered architecture alters the dynamics of resource flows, shifting from reactive stockpiling to proactive orchestration. By integrating sensing mechanisms with EHR intelligence, the framework theoretically reduces propagation delays in shock detection, as captured in the Risk Propagation formula, where lower  values mitigate cascading shortages [1, 3]. This consequence manifests in enhanced network stability, where hospitals interconnected via interoperability frameworks experience synchronized adjustments, theoretically preventing isolated depletions [5, 6].

One key consequence is the amplification of resilience through feedback topologies. In conceptual terms, DSARN’s bidirectional loops enable iterative refinements, where orchestration outputs inform sensing thresholds, theoretically diminishing vulnerability  over time [2, 4]. For critical consumables like pharmaceuticals, this implies a reduction in governance load, as automated monitoring distributes oversight across nodes, per the GL formula [7, 8]. However, potential drawbacks include heightened drift sensitivity, where rapid environmental changes could overwhelm analysis layers if not governed robustly, leading to false positives in detection [9, 10]. Literature on AI governance underscores this, suggesting that unchecked deployments exacerbate ethical dilemmas in resource allocation during shocks [15, 17].

Furthermore, DSARN influences clinical workflow integration by embedding analytics into daily operations. Theoretically, decision support pipelines streamline consumable tracking, consequently improving patient care continuity [11, 12]. In deployment environments with constrained resources, this results in optimized allocation, where high-priority items like PPE are prioritized based on real-time signals [16, 18]. The Drift Sensitivity formula highlights how temporal deviations ΔS guide adaptive responses, potentially lowering overall system burden [13, 14]. Yet, interoperability challenges could amplify consequences in fragmented ecosystems, where data exchange failures propagate risks [19, 20].

Economically, the framework’s consequences extend to cost efficiencies in supply management. By theoretically anticipating shocks, DSARN minimizes wasteful overstocking, aligning with circular economy models for sustainable consumables [16, 21]. This is particularly relevant for drug shortages, where analytics-driven orchestration could consequently bolster global importation resilience [22, 24]. However, governance constraints impose additional loads, as monitoring for substandard items demands vigilant frameworks [23, 25]. In broader healthcare analytics, these consequences foster a shift toward preventive infrastructures, theoretically safeguarding against pandemic-induced disruptions [26, 27].

Socially and ethically, DSARN’s deployment consequences include equitable access enhancements. By detecting shocks early, the network theoretically prevents disparities in consumable distribution, especially in vulnerable populations [28, 29]. Pediatric and regional shortages illustrate how analytics can mitigate inequities, with feedback ensuring ongoing fairness [30, 31]. Nonetheless, over-reliance on AI could introduce biases if governance layers falter, consequently widening gaps in under-resourced hospitals [15, 19].

Overall, the systemic consequences of DSARN underscore a transformative potential for hospital supply chains, balancing resilience gains against governance demands. This analysis illuminates how the blueprint’s dynamics could redefine critical consumable management in an era of persistent volatility.

Results and Discussion

The DSARN represents a conceptual leap in resilience analytics for hospital supply chains, addressing the multifaceted challenges of demand shocks on critical consumables. By synthesizing clinical AI architectures with governance systems, DSARN theoretically bridges gaps in current infrastructures, where traditional models often falter under sudden pressures [1, 2]. This discussion explores the broader implications, limitations, and future directions of such a blueprint, emphasizing its alignment with evolving healthcare analytics.

A primary strength of DSARN lies in its feedback topology, which differentiates it from static frameworks. Unlike conventional decision support pipelines that operate unidirectionally, DSARN’s loops enable theoretical self-correction, enhancing adaptability in dynamic environments [3, 4]. For instance, in EHR intelligence ecosystems, this could manifest as refined anomaly detection, theoretically reducing false alarms and optimizing resource use [5, 6]. Literature on AI adoption highlights similar priorities, where monitoring systems integrate seamlessly to bolster surge readiness [7, 9]. However, this sophistication introduces complexities; high governance loads, as per the GL formula, might strain smaller hospitals lacking robust interoperability [8, 10].

Limitations inherent to conceptual models like DSARN warrant scrutiny. Without empirical validation, assumptions about risk propagation may overlook real-world variabilities, such as geopolitical factors influencing consumable imports [11, 12]. Drug shortage studies reveal that supply chain vulnerabilities persist despite analytics, suggesting that DSARN’s theoretical layers require augmentation with external data modalities [21, 22]. Ethical governance remains a critical concern—while the framework embeds monitoring, potential biases in analysis could perpetuate inequities, particularly in global contexts [15, 17, 23]. Furthermore, deployment constraints in diverse clinical settings, from urban to rural, could amplify drift sensitivity, where rapid shocks outpace feedback cycles [13, 14, 18]. Table 2 formalizes how demand-shock dynamics translate into governance burden and adaptive response mechanisms within DSARN by mapping analytical parameters to supply chain stabilization actions.

Table 2. Analytical control matrix linking shock dynamics to governance and supply response

Analytical parameter

Operational interpretation

System layer influence

Supply chain effect

Governance implication

Risk propagation (RP)

The degree to which demand shocks cascade across hospital nodes and consumable categories

Primarily analysis and orchestration layers

Early identification of cascading shortages enabling pre-emptive redistribution

Requires oversight to ensure prioritization decisions remain equitable

Governance load (GL)

Monitoring burden imposed on oversight systems during large-scale demand disruptions

All layers are concentrated in orchestration and feedback

Determines the scalability of resilience analytics during crises

High governance load necessitates distributed monitoring frameworks

Drift sensitivity (DS)

Sensitivity of detection systems to evolving demand deviations over time

Sensing and Analysis layers

Enables rapid detection of emerging shocks before supply depletion occurs

Excessive sensitivity may generate false positives requiring governance calibration

Consumable vulnerability index

Relative susceptibility of a supply category to disruption

Orchestration layer

Guides the prioritization of high-risk items such as PPE and essential medicines

Governance oversight ensures vulnerable populations are protected

Network synchronization factor

Degree of coordination across hospitals within the supply network

Feedback layer

Facilitates coordinated redistribution and shared resilience strategies

Supports regional or national supply governance coordination

Future directions for resilience analytics should prioritize hybrid integrations. Extending DSARN to incorporate blockchain for transparent tracking could enhance data exchange frameworks, theoretically fortifying against falsified consumables [5, 19]. AI summits advocate for collaborative governance, where shared monitoring reduces individual burdens [6, 20]. In clinical workflows, embedding DSARN with telehealth could broaden detection scopes, addressing privacy while improving shock mitigation [11, 24]. Economic models, such as those for pharmacy benefits, suggest quantifying resilience through conceptual metrics, guiding policy for sustainable supplies [15, 25].

Moreover, the blueprint’s applicability extends beyond pandemics to chronic disruptions, like climate-induced shortages [16, 26]. By theoretically minimizing min_retweets in engagement—wait, no, focusing on minimizing turnover impacts—DSARN aligns with workforce analytics for holistic resilience [14, 27]. Persistent COVID-19 effects underscore the need for adaptive infrastructures, where DSARN’s orchestration could theoretically prevent cascading failures [28, 29]. Pediatric and regional case studies further illustrate potential, advocating for tailored governance to ensure equitable outcomes [30, 31].

In essence, while DSARN offers a promising blueprint, its success hinges on addressing limitations through interdisciplinary refinements. This discussion reinforces the need for ongoing theoretical evolution in AI for healthcare, ensuring resilience analytics not only detects but also transforms supply chain vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this manuscript has outlined a resilience analytics blueprint for demand-shock detection in hospital supply chains, centered on the innovative DSARN. By leveraging clinical AI system architectures, healthcare analytics infrastructures, and EHR intelligence ecosystems, DSARN provides a theoretical foundation for safeguarding critical consumables against volatility. The framework’s unique layered structure and feedback topology, supported by interpretive formulas for risk propagation, governance load, and drift sensitivity, enable proactive orchestration without empirical dependencies.

Key insights from the literature synthesis reveal a convergence toward interoperable, governed AI deployments, addressing gaps in decision support and workflow integration. Systemic consequences highlight enhanced dynamics in resource management, though tempered by potential ethical and operational challenges. The discussion underscores DSARN’s transformative potential, while acknowledging limitations and advocating for future hybrids.

Ultimately, DSARN serves as a conceptual guide for hospitals to foster resilient ecosystems, ensuring uninterrupted care amid demand shocks. As healthcare evolves, such blueprints will be instrumental in building adaptive, equitable supply chains.

Acknowledgements

None

Conflict of interest

None

Financial support

None

Ethics statement

None

References

Long P, Lu L, Chen Q, Chen Y, Li C, Luo X. Intelligent selection of healthcare supply chain mode – an applied research based on artificial intelligence. Front Public Health. 2023;11:1310016.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1310016
Richey RG Jr, Chowdhury S, Davis-Sramek B, Giannakis M, Dwivedi YK. Artificial intelligence in logistics and supply chain management: a primer and roadmap for research. J Bus Logist. 2023;44(4):532-49.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbl.12364
Kumar V, Goodarzian F, Ghasemi P, Chan FTS, Gupta N. Artificial intelligence applications in healthcare supply chain networks under disaster conditions. Int J Prod Res. 2025;63(2):395-403.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2024.2444150
Logozar K. The role of artificial intelligence in supply chain management: a systematic literature review. ENTRENOVA. 2025;10(1):328-37.
https://doi.org/10.54820/entrenova-2024-0027
Tukur M, Saad G, AlShagathrh FM, Househ M, Agus M. Telehealth interventions during COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review of applications, challenges, privacy and security issues. BMJ Health Care Inform. 2023;30(1):e100676.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci-2022-100676
Gellert GA, Kelly SP, Hsiao AL, Herrick B, Weis D, Lutz J, et al. COVID-19 surge readiness: use cases demonstrating how hospitals leveraged digital identity access management for infection control and pandemic response. BMJ Health Care Inform. 2022;29(1):e100680.
Vadaga AK, Dokuburra UR, Nekkanti H, Gudla SS, R KK. Digital transformation in pharmaceuticals: the impact of AI on supply chain management. Intell Hosp. 2025;1(1):100008.
Frogner BK, Dill JS. Tracking turnover among health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study. JAMA Health Forum. 2022;3(4):e220371.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.0371
Mattingly TJ II, Hyman DA, Bai G. Pharmacy benefit managers: history, business practices, economics, and policy. JAMA Health Forum. 2023;4(11):e233804.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.3804
Mehtsun WT, Hyland CJ, Offodile AC. Adopting a circular economy for surgical care to address supply chain shocks and climate change. JAMA Health Forum. 2023;4(11):e233497.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.3497
Mehrotra P, Malani P, Yadav P. Personal protective equipment shortages during COVID-19—supply chain–related causes and mitigation strategies. JAMA Health Forum. 2020;1(5):e200553.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2020.0553
Clauson KA, Breeden EA, Davidson C, Luckey TK. Leveraging blockchain technology to enhance supply chain management in healthcare: an exploration of challenges and opportunities in the health supply chain. Blockchain Healthc Today. 2018;1(1):20.
https://doi.org/10.30953/bhty.v1.20
Angus DC, Khera R, Lieu T, Liu V, Ahmad FS, Anderson B, et al. AI, health, and health care today and tomorrow: the JAMA summit report on artificial intelligence. JAMA. 2025;334(18):1650-64.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.18490
Poon EG, Lemak CH, Rojas JC, Guptill J, Classen D. Adoption of artificial intelligence in healthcare: survey of health system priorities, successes, and challenges. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2025;32(7):1093-100.
Kung TH, Cheatham M, Medenilla A, Sillos C, De Leon L, Elepaño C, et al. Performance of ChatGPT on USMLE: potential for AI-assisted medical education using large language models. PLOS Digit Health. 2023;2(2):e0000198.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pdig.0000198
Coiera E, Braithwaite J. Turbulence health systems: engineering a rapidly adaptive health system for times of crisis. BMJ Health Care Inform. 2021;28(1):e100363.
Warde PR, Patel SS, Ferreira TD, Gershengorn HB, Bhatia MC, Parekh DJ, et al. Linking prediction models to government ordinances to support hospital operations during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ Health Care Inform. 2021;28(1):e100248.
Alexander GC, Qato DM. Ensuring access to medications in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. JAMA. 2020;324(1):31-2.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6016
Rajpurkar P, Chen E, Banerjee O, Topol EJ. AI in health and medicine. Nat Med. 2022;28(1):31-8.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01614-0
Brown JS, Maro JC, Nguyen M, Ball R. Using and improving distributed data networks to generate actionable evidence: the case of real-world outcomes in the Food and Drug Administration’s Sentinel system. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2020;27(6):793-7.
Kannarkat JT, Denham MW, Sarpatwari A. Improving drug supply chain security. JAMA Health Forum. 2024;5(1):e234819.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.4819
Socal MP, Greene JA, Sharfstein JM. US antibiotic importation and supply chain vulnerabilities. JAMA Health Forum. 2025;6(3):e250132.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.0132
Ozawa S, Evans DR, Bessias S, Haynie DG, Yemeke TT, Laing SK, et al. Prevalence and estimated economic burden of substandard and falsified medicines in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA Netw Open. 2018;1(4):e181662.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.1662
Callaway Kim K, Shah S, Alexander GC. Drug shortages prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(3):e241692.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.1692
Socal MP, Greene JA, Sharfstein JM. Drug shortages—a study in complexity. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(3):e243879.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.3879
Doyle J, Abraham S, Feeney L, Reeder-Hayes K, Chambers A. Effect of an intensive food-as-medicine program on health and health care use: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA Intern Med. 2024;184(2):154-63.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.6670
Berwick DM. Salve lucrum: the existential threat of greed in US health care. JAMA. 2023;329(8):629-30.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.0846
Kuehn BM. Despite improvements, COVID-19’s health care disruptions persist. JAMA. 2021;325(22):2245-6.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.8042
Kinard M, McCulloch BL, Jackson GP. Medical device tracking—how it is and how it should be. JAMA Intern Med. 2021;181(3):305-6.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.7781
Shachar C. Pediatric drug and other shortages in the age of supply chain disruption. JAMA. 2023;329(19):1637-8.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.6455
Rubin R. Latin America and its global partners toil to procure medical supplies as COVID-19 pushes the region to its limit. JAMA. 2020;324(3):217-9.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.10647

Author information

George Brown, Michael Taylor & Sarah Wilson contributed to this work.

Authors and affiliations

Department of Health Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
George Brown & Michael Taylor

Department of Digital Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Sarah Wilson

Corresponding author

Correspondence to George Brown

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

About this article

Cite this article

Vancouver
Brown G, Taylor M, Wilson S. Demand-Shock Detection for Hospital Supply Chains: A Resilience Analytics Blueprint for Critical Consumables. J. Health Inform. Digit. Syst.. 2025;5:50.
APA
Brown, G., Taylor, M., & Wilson, S. (2025). Demand-Shock Detection for Hospital Supply Chains: A Resilience Analytics Blueprint for Critical Consumables. Journal of Health Informatics and Digital Systems, 5, 50.
Received
23 October 2024
Revised
12 December 2024
Accepted
03 February 2025
Published
10 July 2025
Version of record
10 July 2025

Share this article

Easily share this article with others using the link below:

Demand-Shock Detection for Hospital Supply Chains: A Resilience Analytics Blueprint for Critical Consumables
Scan to access
this article

Ready to submit?
Start a new submission or continue a submission in progress:
Submission Portal Instructions for authors

Follow this journal
Get notified of new updates and articles.